For over two weeks, Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (HSIA) in Dhaka has been the epicenter of a bizarre aviation paradox. While flight cancellation numbers have mounted a staggering toll of 447, the airport has simultaneously managed to crank 448 flights to the Middle East.

This near-perfect statistical tie masks a deep operational chasm, separating destinations deemed safe from those caught in the barrage of regional geopolitical turmoil.

Operational divide, routes that endured

Despite the chaos, data reveal that Middle Eastern connectivity did not entirely collapse. Between February 28 and March 13, Dhaka airport successfully operated 448 flights to the region. This figure demonstrates the remarkable resilience of specific corridors and the aviation industry’s ability to adapt under pressure.

Saudi Arabia emerged as the primary safe haven, receiving 219 flights, the highest volume to any single nation. This was followed by the UAE (118 flights) and Oman (111 flights). The operational peak occurred on March 12, with 48 departures, while scheduled operations for March 13 stood at 37 flights.

This operational success is attributed to the swift reopening of specific airspaces. While 7 nations closed their skies, Saudi Arabia and Oman resumed normal flight operations shortly after the initial shock on February 28. Airlines like US-Bangla capitalized on this, announcing resumptions to Sharjah and Abu Dhabi, and maintaining daily services to Dubai, Jeddah, and Riyadh . This indicates that while the crisis was regional, it was not uniform; the ‘sufficiency’ of operations depended entirely on the destination.

Cancellation crisis, 447 flights cancelled

On the flip side of this operational coin lies a massive void. Simultaneous with the 448 flights that flew, 447 flights were cancelled from Dhaka airport, representing a near-total shutdown of routes to 7 specific countries .

The crisis began on February 28 when Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan shuttered their airspace indefinitely due to the escalating US-Israeli-Iranian conflict. Cancellations peaked on March 2 with 46 flights grounded, and daily cancellations remained consistently high throughout the first week, ranging from 24-46 flights per day.

The breakdown of cancellations on peak days highlights the devastation for Gulf carriers. On March 5 alone, Qatar Airways cancelled 4 flights, Emirates cancelled 4, and Air Arabia (Sharjah) was forced to ground 10 services. By March 11, cumulative cancellations had reached 391, climbing to the final tally of 447 by Friday.

Sufficiency vs. insufficiency?

The juxtaposition of these numbers allows for a clear assessment of airline and airport response.

Sufficient capacity on ‘open’ routes

Airlines proved highly sufficient in redirecting capacity and maintaining schedules where airspace remained open. The daily average of 32 flights to the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia seeing 13-23 daily flights, suggests that airlines effectively utilized available routes to serve the massive Bangladeshi expatriate worker population. US-Bangla Airlines, in particular, demonstrated agility by confirming resumption dates for affected UAE routes as soon as operational feasibility allowed .

Insufficient mitigation for ‘closed’ routes

However, for 7 closed nations, the airline response has been largely insufficient. The press releases from HSIA flight management sent through CAAB paint a grim picture of stranded passengers with no clear timeline for resumption. While major hubs like Dubai and Abu Dhabi remained closed until at least March 10 (with extensions beyond that), thousands of passengers bound for Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE found themselves in limbo. The lack of alternative routing, given that flights to these destinations are predominantly direct, meant that cancellations were absolute, with no workaround available for travellers.

Potential effects, human and economic toll?

The dual reality of operation and cancellation carries severe potential effects.

Stranded migrant workers and fiscal impact

The most immediate effect is on the millions of Bangladeshi migrant workers who form the backbone of the Gulf economies. With the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait closed, workers on fixed-term contracts or emergency leave face job insecurity and financial losses. The sudden cancellations have left hundreds stranded at airports, incurring accommodation costs and lost wages.

Airline revenue loss

For Gulf carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Kuwait Airways, who operate multiple daily wide-body flights from Dhaka, the grounding represents millions of dollars in lost revenue. Dhaka is one of the busiest routes in their networks; a two-week hiatus creates a significant financial dent.

Market share shift

The crisis is reshaping the competitive landscape. While Biman Bangladesh Airlines adopted a ‘cautious stance’ by suspending routes to Doha, Sharjah, and Kuwait, private carriers like US-Bangla moved to resume operations resolutely. If the airspace closures persist, a permanent shift may be seen in market share away from the affected Gulf carriers toward airlines based in Saudi Arabia, Oman, or even Turkish airlines offering connecting services.

The crisis erodes passenger trust. As noted by Biman, travellers on cancelled flights are entitled to rerouting or refunds. However, the ‘act of war’ or ‘other’ cause classifications often exempt airlines from paying compensation, leaving passengers with only the bare minimum of care and eroding long-term brand loyalty for the affected carriers.