More than 52 thousand flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled in just 17 days since the Iran war began on February 28, paralyzing the region’s aviation industry, according to the American newspaper New York (NY) Times reported by aviation reporter Niraj Chokshi.

Cirium aviation data firm confirmed the cancellations represent more than half of all flights planned in the region during this period. An estimated 6 million passengers have been affected by the disruption, the Times reports.

Major Gulf carriers Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways face their biggest test since the Covid-19 pandemic. These airlines have become some of the world's largest and most profitable thanks to their strategic location at the centre of busy travel routes, Chokshi notes.

Mike Malik, chief industry officer at Cirium, told the newspaper, “We've got some major hubs out there for airlines, and they have built themselves into an indispensable force for connecting passengers. But when something like this happens, those hubs get shut down and you basically break the system”.

Geography has been central to the three carriers’ success. Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi sit within reasonable flying distance of much of the global population, making them natural transit hubs for long-distance journeys from New York to New Delhi or London to Sydney, the report states.

The carriers hold an especially tight grip on travel to and from Europe, carrying about one in three people travelling from Europe to Asia and one in two people from Europe to Australia, according to Cirium data cited by the Times. A total of 227 million people flew to, from or through the region last year, International Air Transport Association reported.

The financial toll appears substantial. Tourism Economics research firm estimates loss of tourist spending alone could range from USD 3,400 crore to USD 5,600 crore this year, depending on how long the war lasts. Given the current state of conflict, experts expect the toll to reach the high end of that range.

John Strickland, aviation industry consultant, explained the mounting costs to Chokshi, “You've still got the costs of your aircraft, the cost of your staff, maintenance, head office, admin”.

Effects could extend far beyond the region to countries reliant on Persian Gulf connections, particularly India and Australia. Brendan Sobie, Singapore-based industry analyst, told the NY Times, "Safe to say that there's hundreds of destinations out there that are significantly impacted by various degrees."

The report highlighted case study of Deel, a San Francisco human resources company that flew almost 1 thousand 500 employees to Dubai for a corporate gathering in late February. The United States attacked Iran the day after the event ended, leaving about 500 Deel employees stranded.

Joe Kauffman, company president and chief financial officer, told the newspaper he worried immediately. “I wasn't sure exactly how everything was going to play out. Where are all our employees? Are they safe?” Deel transported about 100 people by bus to neighbouring Oman for flights out. Within one week, almost all employees were evacuated.

Many travellers affected by airspace closures said airlines had done their best in difficult circumstances, but others said they received conflicting information or little help, the Times notes. American travelers expressed frustration with the State Department for not assisting their return home.

The three big Gulf airlines, all government-owned, have posted robust profits in recent years. Carriers in the region earned estimated USD 2 thousand 900 per passenger last year, highest profit margins in industry. European airlines earned just under USD 1 thousand 100, while North American carriers earned just under USD one thousand per passenger, according to International Air Transport Association data cited in the report.

Tony Stanton, chief executive of Strategic Air consulting firm, told Chokshi, “For premium brands, the real reputational test is not whether disruption happens but whether confidence, calm and control are maintained while it happens”.

Emirates was established in 1985 in Dubai during nearly decade-long war between Iraq and Iran, well before Dubai became financial hub, the Times reports. Airline defied odds to become global force over four decades.

Some aviation experts expect the region's airlines and airports to bounce back once dangers subside, Chokshi notes. Air travel often recovers quickly from crises including crashes, terrorist attacks and pandemic. Eddy Pieniazek, head of advisory at Ishka aviation firm, said, “Passengers tend to have short memories, especially when there are bargains to be had”.

Big carriers possess significant cash reserves to aid relatively quick recovery, analysts told the Times. However, smaller carriers and budget airlines may struggle more.

The war could temporarily benefit airlines elsewhere as carriers like British Airways, Lufthansa, Qantas and Turkish Airlines see nearly full planes. These airlines typically fill 80% to 90% of seats on long-distance flights, but planes now probably depart nearly full as travellers seek alternatives, the report states.

Lufthansa Group announced plans to add flights, particularly to Asia and Africa, with limited services from German airports to Singapore, Cape Town and Riyadh.

Kauffman told the Times he has not ruled out another corporate event in Dubai in future years despite the crisis. “I really think that Dubai will continue to be a good place for us to be”, he said.