Boeing projects that air cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years, pushing the global freighter fleet above 4,000 aircraft by 2045, according to its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast.

The planemaker released the forecast at the International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami. It expects traffic to grow 3.5 percent a year, faster than long-term economic and trade growth. Trade flows touching Asia are expected to lead growth and account for about 60 percent of the global market.

Boeing said the worldwide freighter fleet is forecast to grow 67 percent, from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045. Operators will need 2,930 new and converted freighters over the period, it said. About 55 percent of these would add capacity, and about 45 percent would replace older, less efficient aircraft. Two-thirds of deliveries would be converted passenger aircraft, and the rest new-production freighters.

Boeing expects dedicated freighters to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic in the long term. Express operators, known as integrators, are expected to raise their share of traffic to nearly 25 percent by 2045.

The company cited e-commerce, direct-to-consumer business models, and demand for high-tech goods as growth drivers. It also pointed to time-sensitive shipments for advanced manufacturing and AI hardware and supply chain diversification. Citing the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Boeing said more than 70 percent of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.

Global air cargo traffic reached a record in 2025, growing nearly 5 percent from 2024 despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions, the release said. Airlines with freighter operations earned about 90 percent of the industry revenue, which was roughly $170 billion, that year.

Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said air cargo’s adaptability and speed are strategic advantages as supply chains evolve. He said, "Dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce."

Boeing noted that air cargo makes up less than 1 percent of global trade by volume but about one-third by value.

Source: PR