By Baten Biplob

With the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) now in office, its manifesto pledge to send one crore (10 million) workers abroad over the next five years stands as one of the most ambitious labour migration commitments in the country’s history.

For an economy where remittances underpin foreign exchange reserves, rural livelihoods and even outbound aviation demand, the target signals an attempt to reposition overseas employment as a central pillar of national growth. But scaling migration to that level also raises structural questions: Can the system absorb 20 lakh departures annually? Can workers be protected? And can migration finally shift from debt-driven survival to skills-based mobility?

Doubling annual departures

To reach one crore in five years, Bangladesh must send roughly 20 lakh workers abroad each year, nearly double current legal averages. According to Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (BAIRA) Secretary General Ali Haidar Chowdhury, Bangladesh currently sends about 11 lakh workers abroad annually. Of them, 6 to 7 lakh migrate to Saudi Arabia alone, highlighting heavy dependence on a single market.

“Pressure is increasing on one large market,” Chowdhury told Aviation Express. “To increase capacity, we must open new markets and upgrade worker skills.”

The BNP plan includes upazila-level training expansion, easy-term loans up to Tk 10 lakh to reduce reliance on informal brokers, and migration at “zero or minimal cost” for low-income candidates.

Beyond Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates absorbed around one lakh workers last year, while Malaysia and other destinations accounted for smaller numbers. Emerging markets like Japan offer potential, but require language training and technical preparation that can take six to seven months per batch. “Language is important,” Ali Haidar said, “but practical skills matter more.”

Reforming the migration model

BNP has proposed introducing a “Probashi Card”,  a smart ID integrating migrants’ personal and contractual data with banking gateways to streamline remittance flows. Additional remittance incentives, social protection coverage for returnees and SME support for migrant entrepreneurs are also promised.

BRAC’s Head of Programme (Migration) Shariful Hasan said governance reform must be central. “We must move from a debt-driven survival strategy to a safe, skills-based pathway to decent work and economic mobility”.

He called for a fully digital and accountable recruitment system, strict enforcement of migration cost caps and expansion of affordable pre-migration finance. Irregular migration remains a concern, particularly through routes toward Europe, underscoring the need to dismantle trafficking networks, he noted.

Aviation and infrastructure impact

Migration is not only labour policy, it is also aviation economics. A jump to 20 lakh annual departures would significantly increase airlines seat demand and airport throughput. “If migration doubles, aviation infrastructure must keep pace,” said aviation expert ATM Nazrul Islam. “Otherwise congestion and fare volatility will increase.”

BNP has pledged to rationalize airfare costs, reduce airport congestion and ensure dignified airport services for migrant workers.

Ambition meets capacity

The manifesto also outlined plans for an Overseas Skills Investment Park, a Migration Market Research Institute and a national “Smart Workforce Initiative” to align skills with global demand. Sending one crore workers abroad, whether it becomes a migration breakthrough or a capacity stress test, will depend on disciplined execution, labour diplomacy and deep institutional reform.